Indian-Pakistani Air Clashes: A Major New Opportunity For Russia’s Su-57 Fighter Program

A growing body of evidence pointing to major Pakistani victories in a series of air battles with the Indian Air Force, which initiated Operation Sindoor on May 6 to neutralise targets in&nbsp;the country&nbsp;and in disputed neighbouring regions, has raised serious questions regarding the future procurement decisions that will shape the Indian fighter fleet. The sudden escalation of longstanding tensions to open hostilities&nbsp;has&nbsp;highlighted the rationales for both states’ longstanding attribution of a high degree of importance&nbsp;to deploying top end aerial warfare capabilities. It is thus notable that this&nbsp;occurred less than three months after both Russia and the United States escalated efforts to market their rival Su-57 and F-35 fifth generation fighter aircraft to the country at the Aero India air exhibition. Although the F-35 is expected to be <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/trump-pledges-export-f35-stealth-fighters-india-derail-su57" >excluded</a>&nbsp;from&nbsp;being seriously considered for political reasons, namely due to the extensive restrictions which the U.S. places on the use of its aircraft which limit autonomy in ways that are unacceptable for the Indian Defence Ministry, procurement of the Su-57 and a license production deal for the fighters has been reported to be under serious consideration.<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2025/05/08/article_681d42505bfcc6_98458051.png" title="Su-57 (top) and F-35 and Air India 2025">Pending the procurement of new fifth generation fighters, the elite of the Indian Air Force’s fighter fleet has been comprised of&nbsp;Russian&nbsp;Su-30MKI and French Rafale ‘4+ generation’ fighters. The Su-30MKI is a much larger aircraft with a radar over twice as heavy, far higher levels of manoeuvrability, and a much greater weapons carrying capacity. Although cutting edge when first procured in 2002, many of its avionics date back to the early 2000s,&nbsp;with its N011M&nbsp;passive electronically scanned array&nbsp;radar considered increasingly out of date. The Rafale is a much lighter aircraft fielded at a small fraction of the scale, with just 36 in service. Although purchased more recently with a more modern radar, it is hindered by the small size of its sensor suite, its relatively limited manoeuvrability and a lack of optimisation for air-to-air combat. The confirmed shootdown of at least one Rafale fighter, each of which cost the Indian Defence Ministry a staggering sum of over $240 million, and the reported success of the Chinese-supplied J-10C fighter and PL-15 air-to-air missile in Pakistani service, have likely served to reinforce&nbsp;the message of Pakistan’s emerging capability edge as a result of its procurements of advanced Chinese equipment.&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2025/05/08/article_681d42fa006022_20393024.jpg" title="Rafale Fighter">Throughout the Cold War the Indian Air Force’s top fighter units enjoyed significant advantages over their Pakistani counterparts. In 1971 Indian MiG-21s demonstrated a major major edge over Pakistan’s F-104s&nbsp;during combat engagements, while in the 1980s the country’s MiG-23ML and MiG-29 fighters boasted more powerful radars and advanced beyond visual range capabilities that Pakistan’s F-16A/B jets could not match.&nbsp;The rise in the standing of China’s combat aviation sector&nbsp;over the past 20 years, however, and major delays to India’s planned procurements of Russian fifth generation fighters, have to a large extent reversed this, with Pakistan’s J-10C very possibly having a greater air-to-air combat potential than any other fighter in South Asia. The looming&nbsp;arrival of the J-35&nbsp;fifth generation fighter in Pakistan, which although less capable than the J-20 is still far more capable than any fighter operated in the region, is poised to further worsen the standing of top Indian fighter units. The first J-35s are expected to become operational before 2030, providing Pakistan with a fighter that far outperforms even the J-10C with a larger radar, higher endurance and advanced stealth capabilities and distributed aperture systems.&nbsp;<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2025/05/08/article_681d428fa4eb15_24784559.jpeg" title="Chinese PLA Air Force J-10C with PL-15 and PL-10 Air-to-Air Missiles" >The demonstrated potency of modern Chinese fighter aircraft for the first time on May 6 is expected to be cause for serious concern in the Indian Defence Ministry, with ongoing procurement of further J-10Cs, similarly advanced but lighter JF-17 Block 3 fighters, and the J-35, potentially leaving the Indian fleet at a very significant qualitative disadvantage. With European defence industries not expected to produce a fighter meeting minimum fifth generation standards within the next decade, while the United States remains excluded as a supplier for political reasons, this leaves only Russia as a potential supplier of fighters that can quickly reverse the trend towards a growing Pakistani advantage in the air. The discrediting of the Rafale or other European ‘4+ generation’ alternatives as viable answers to the growing potency of the combat jets China is exporting to Pakistan leaves the Russian fifth generation program in a much stronger position to gain orders.