South Korea’s New President Quashes Western Hopes of Expanded Arms Supplies For Ukraine

On June 4 the election of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung as president of the Republic of Korea ended hopes in the Western world both for a more active South Korean role in the ongoing cold conflict between the Western Bloc and China, and more immediately for Seoul to begin supplying armaments to bolster the Ukrainian war effort against Russia. Although public opinion in South Korea has consistently <a href="https://thedefensepost.com/2024/11/29/south-koreans-oppose-ukraine/" >overwhelmingly opposed </a>the possibility of equipping Ukraine’s armed forces, contrasting sharply with the<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-citizens-raise-13-mln-modernised-tank-ukraine-2022-10-03/" target="_blank"> tremendous support </a>that arms supplies to the country has received across Europe, then president Yoon Suk-yeol in November stated that such supplies could not be ruled out. Amid sustained Western pressure on Seoul to revise its policy, Western analysts widely highlighted that South Korean armaments could <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/korean-support-kyiv-would-transform-ukraine-and-koreas-global-role" target="_blank">transform</a> the conflict in the favour of Western Bloc and Ukrainian interests.<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2025/06/07/article_6844cb1164ce07_89081987.avif" title="President-Elect Lee Jae-myung">In November 2024, following the confirmed deployment of North Korean forces to&nbsp;<a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-details-nkorea-role-repelling-kursk" target="_blank" >bolster Russian defences</a>&nbsp;in the Kursk region, Kim Tae-hyo who then served as principal deputy national security adviser warned: “If the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues, [South Korea] will not stand by but respond firmly in collaboration with the international community.” He called for “phased measures” to respond, which was seen to hint at the possibility of arms supplies. Although the Yoon administration’s policies were particularly strongly aligned with Western interests across a broad range of issues, the state of public opinion, and the existence of laws prohibiting sending arms to an active war zone, made it difficult to proceed to supply Kiev. The dispatching of South Korean forces to play supporting roles in the conflict, mirroring the <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/foreign-combatants-donbas-battles-russia" target="_blank">tremendous support</a> provided by Western specialists on the ground from early 2022, was also considered a possibility in a number of Western assessments, but was expected to face tremendous public opposition domestically.<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2025/06/07/article_6844cc9f2513a4_18993102.jpg" title="Korean People`s Army Personnel in Kursk">South Korea’s defence sector is by far the largest other than the United States which predominantly produces NATO-compatible equipment, and for many kinds of ground forces equipment, in particular all kinds of artillery, its productive capacity far exceeds that of the U.S. Supplies from the country to Ukraine would mirror the <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-expecting-heavy-artillery-missile-reinforcements-nkorea" target="_blank">tremendous</a> artillery and other supplies which Russia has received from North Korea, and on which the Russian Army has now become <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russian-reliance-nkorean-armaments-extreme-60mm-mortars">extremely heavily dependant</a>. Moreover, the country has very large stockpiles of air defence equipment far exceeding those of European states, and produces NATO standard systems that far surpass the performances of their European counterparts. The country also deploys a number of high performance Soviet tanks, namely T-80U/UK main battle tanks procured from Russia in the 1990s, which were at the time a close contender for the title of the most capable class of main battle tank in the world. These vehicles could be easily integrated into the Ukrainian Army, which already <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russian-lancet-t80-kursk" target="_blank">operates small numbers </a>of T-80s, providing one of the most capable vehicles in the country’s fleet.&nbsp;<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2025/06/07/article_6844cb6d5f1ed8_32539754.jpg" title="Polish Army K2 Tanks Supplied by South Korea">South Korea has already made significant contributions to the Ukrainian war effort, albeit indirectly. The country has supplied hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to the United States, which were procured specifically to allow America’s own artillery stockpiles to be diverted to the Ukrainian Army without excessively depleting U.S. Army supplies. It has also provided main battle tanks and artillery to Poland at a particularly high rate, with 96 K2 tanks <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/south-korea-to-triple-tank-deliveries-to-poland-96-k2s-incoming-in-2025-production-surge" target="_blank">expected to be delivered</a> in 2025 alone, allowing the Polish Army to retire its T-72 and PT-91 tanks and supply them to Ukraine quickly. Nevertheless, the election of Lee Jae-myung as president is expected to totally end prospects for direct supplies, and potentially limit the indirect support that Seoul may provide. Lee has been far more measured in criticising Russia, and been <a href="http://www.kukinews.com/newsView/kuk202202280030" >highly critical </a>of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's policy toward Russia as “incompetent” and “provocative,” while being particularly outspoken against the possibility of arms supplies to the country. With South Korean support having been a potential game changer due to its unique industrial capacity, Lee’s election may have represented one of the more pivotal events in the war effort against the favour of Kiev and its Western supporters.&nbsp;