Western Assessments Highlight Looming Catastrophe For Ukraine’s War Effort

Amid <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrainian-recruits-trained-panic" target="_blank">fast mounting</a> Ukrainian defeats across multiple fronts, and <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukraine-20650-personnel-kursk" target="_blank">particularly rapid attrition</a> of the elite contingent <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukraine-twin-assaults-kursk-belogrod" target="_blank">sent into Russia’s Kursk region</a> in early August, consensus in the Western world has increasingly shifted towards a highly pessimistic outlook for the future of the <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/contractors-kursk-polish-french-details" target="_blank">joint war effort </a>against Russia. In particular, the advances of Russian forces into parts of the disputed Donbas region that are vital to the survival of what remains of Ukraine’s economy have the potential to bring an end to efforts by the government in Kiev and its Western allies to sustain a NATO-aligned administration in power.&nbsp; The Ukrainian steel industry, for one, is seen to be particularly at risk due to Russian advances towards the city of Pokrovsk. These advances place both the Pokrovsky Mining and Processing Plant and the country’s largest coking coal mine at Krasnoarmeyskaya Zapadnaya at serious risk of being captured or otherwise seriously disrupted.<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2024/10/16/article_670f73f405fd01_74279902.jpg" title="Coal Mine at Krasnoarmeyskaya Zapadnaya">While Ukraine in 2021 ranked 14th in the world in steel production – a legacy of the vast steel industry inherited from the Soviet era – the country fell to 24th place following the outbreak of full scale hostilities with Russia in 2022. As observed by the London based Economist, Russia would soon be able to “destroy the remaining steel industry of Ukraine” – stressing that the full capture of Pokrovsk was not necessary to achieve this. "As they advance, they [Russian troops – Ed.] will try to cut off the power supply and block the main road that carries coal west to the remaining steelworks. Then they will do the same at another smaller coking coal mine 18 km north of Udachny, at Dobropillya," the British paper noted. Ukraine already relies on Western aid to finance the large majority of government spending, ranging from pensions to power generation and arms acquisitions, with the collapse of one of its foremost remaining industries set to place considerable further pressure on its Western sponsors.&nbsp;<img src="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/m/articles/2024/10/16/article_670f72b6704ef9_35043728.JPG" title="U.S. Supplied M1A1 Abrams Tank Captured by Russian Forces in September">The Wall Street Journal has observed that dwindling arms supplies from Western allies and vast inferiority in firepower are among the factors leaving Ukrainian forces’ prospects for holding out on the frontlines looking grim. The country’s situation has been made especially difficult by the resumption of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, leaving growing segments of the population without electricity. The Journal predicted that the coming winter could be especially difficult, with Ukrainian air defences <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukraine-air-defence-s300-buk-expire" target="_blank">dwindling</a> leaving remaining power generation facilities vulnerable as temperatures rapidly drop. Ukrainian officials have themselves revealed that 90 percent of the country’s capacity for thermal power generation has already been destroyed by Russian attacks. According to the&nbsp;Journal, Ukrainian officials are highly concerned that Western military aid has fallen <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/footage-captured-leo2a6-study" target="_blank">far short of expectations</a> to reverse the situation on the frontlines. Providing insight into the shifting consensus in the Western world, former Polish chief of the General Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak&nbsp;in the second week of October<a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukraine-defeat-posture-polish-chief" target="_blank"> emphasised the need</a> to prepare for a future in which all of present day Ukrainian territory were placed under Russian control. Much as was outlined by&nbsp;Andrzejczak,&nbsp;Western defence planning is expected to increasingly focus on securing NATO’s borders in an era where Ukraine hosts Russian forces.