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Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic

Author: Sir William Petty

Release Date: May, 2004  [EBook #5619]
[Yes, we are more than one year ahead of schedule]
[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002]

Edition: 10

Language: English

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*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ***




Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, email
ccx074@coventry.ac.uk




ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC




Contents:

Introduction (by Henry Morley)
Another Essays
   The stationer to the reader
   The principal points of this discourse
   Of the growth of the city of London
Further observation upon the Dublin bills
   The stationer to the reader
   A postscript to the stationer
Two essays in political arithmetic
   To the king's most excellent majesty
   An essay in political arithmetic
Five essays in political arithmetic
   The first essay
   The second essay
   The third essay.
   The fourth essay
   The fifth essay
Of the people of England (by Gregory King)



INTRODUCTION.



William Petty, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a
clothier at Romsey in Hampshire.  After education at the Romsey
Grammar School, he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy.  There
he supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and
advancing his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else
that belonged to his idea of a liberal education.  His idea was
large.  He came back to England, and had for a short time a place in
the Navy; but at the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was
away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, Leyden, and
Amsterdam, and also in Paris.  In Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in
drawing diagrams for his treatise on optics.  At the age of twenty-
four Petty took out a patent for the invention of a copying machine.
It was described in a folio pamphlet "On Double Writing."  That was
in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in
his studies, he did not share the philosopher's political opinions,
but held with the Parliament.  In 1648 he added to his former
pamphlet a "Declaration concerning the newly invented Art of Double
Writing."

Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his
worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of
education, and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused
Milton to write his letter on education, as has been shown in the
Introduction to the hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library,
which contains that Letter together with Milton's Areopagitica.
Young Petty's first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on
Education, entitled "The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for
the Advancement of some Particular Parts of Learning."  This
appeared in 1648, when Petty's age was twenty-five, and its aim was
to suggest a wider view of the whole field of education than had
been possible in the Middle Ages, of which schools and colleges were
then preserving the traditions, as they do still here and there to
some extent.  This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume
of the "Harleian Miscellany."  William Petty wished the training of
the young to be in several respects more practical.

His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he
taught anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad.  He
had read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of
modern practical anatomy.  In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford
as Doctor of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and
practised.  In 1650 he surprised the public by restoring the action
of the lungs in a woman who had been hanged for infanticide, and so
restoring her to life.

Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of
science who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to
seek knowledge by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above
all things for its power of advancing the welfare of man.  The
headquarters of these workers were at Oxford, and in London at
Gresham College.

In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a
characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind that he
was at the same time Professor of Music at Gresham College.  Music
had then a high place in the Seven Sciences, as that use of
regulated numbers which expressed the harmonies of the created
world.  The Seven Sciences were divided into three of the Trivium,
and four of the Quadrivium.  The three of the Trivium concerned the
use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, and Logic.  The four of
the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; they were Arithmetic,
Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight to God.
Advance to Music might be represented in the student's mind by his
reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies,
which, so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned
thought.

In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of
the Commonwealth.  While there his active mind observed that the
Survey on which the Government had based its distribution of
fortified lands to the soldiers had been "most inefficiently and
absurdly managed."  He obtained the commission to make a fresh
Survey, which he completed accurately in thirteen months, and by
which he obtained in payments from the Government and from other
persons interested ten thousand pounds.  By investing this in the
purchase of soldiers' claims, he secured for himself an Irish estate
of fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it mines
and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a fishery.  John
Evelyn said of him "that he had never known such another genius, and
that if Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his second
councillor at least."  Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made
Petty his secretary.

Petty's Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, as
"Hiberniae Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;" a
collection of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty,
a work answering to its description as the most perfect delineation
of Ireland that had up to that time been obtained.  There is a
coloured copy of Petty's maps in the British Museum, and also an
uncoloured copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the
coloured copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps
of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught.  There was afterwards
published in duodecimo, without date, "A Geographical Description of
ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected from ye actual Survey made by Sir
William Petty, corrected and amended, engraven and published by Fra.
Lamb."  This volume gives as its contents, "one general mapp, four
provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to which is added a
mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index of the
whole."

At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and
continued his service to the country.  He was knighted by Charles
the Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland.  He
entered Parliament.  He was one of the first founders of the Royal
Society, established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the
Second; and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line
marked out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in
Oxford and at Gresham College.  In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to
the invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or two
passages between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a storm.

In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the
English settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare.  The building
of forty-two houses for the English settlers first laid the
foundations of the present town of Kenmare.  "The population,"
writes Lord Macaulay, "amounted to a hundred and eighty.  The land
round the town was well cultivated.  The cattle were numerous.  Two
small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the coast.
The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was
plentiful, and would have been still more plentiful had not the
beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes of
seals, which preyed on the fish of the bay.  Yet the seal was not an
unwelcome visitor:  his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light
through the long nights of winter.  An attempt was made with great
success to set up ironworks.  It was not yet the practice to employ
coal for the purpose of smelting; and the manufacturers of Kent and
Sussex had much difficulty in procuring timber at a reasonable
price.  The neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded; and
Petty found it a gainful speculation to send ore thither."  He
looked also for profit from the variegated marbles of adjacent
islands.  Distant two days' journey over the mountains from the
nearest English, Petty's English settlement of Kenmare withstood all
surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after its founder's death,
defended itself successfully against a fierce and general attack.

Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and
was buried in his native town of Romsey.  He had added to his great
wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the family in which
another Sir William Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis
of Lansdowne.  The son of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis
of Lansdowne, who took a conspicuous part in our political history
during the present century.

Sir William Petty's survey of the land in Ireland, called the Down
Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the legal
record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held.  The
original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin,
and many of Petty's MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford.

He published in 1662 and 1685 a "Treatise of Taxes and
Contributions, the same being frequently to the present state and
affairs of Ireland," of which his view started from the general
opinion that men should contribute to the public charge according to
their interest in the public peace--that is, according to their
riches.  "Now, he said, "there are two sorts of riches--one actual,
and the other potential.  A man is actually and truly rich according
to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any other way really and
actually enjoyeth.  Others are but potentially and imaginatively
rich, who though they have power over much, make little use of it,
these being rather stewards and exchangers for the other sort than
owners for themselves."  He then showed how he considered that
"every man ought to contribute according to what he taketh to
himself, and actually enjoyeth."

In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on "Duplicate
Proportion," and in 1679 he published in Latin a "Colloquy of David
with his Own Soul."  In 1682 he published a tract called
"Quantulumcunque, concerning Money;" and "England's Guide to
Industry," in 1686.  From 1682 to 1687, the year of his death, Sir
William Petty was drawing great attention to the "Essays on
Political Arithmetic," which are here reprinted.  There was the
little "Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People,
Housings, Hospitals of London and Paris;" published in 1682, again
in French in 1686, and again in English in 1687.  There was the
little "Essay concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together
with an Essay on the Growth of London," published in 1682, and again
in 1683 and 1686.  There was in 1683, "Another Essay in Political
Arithmetic concerning the growth of the City of London."  There were
"Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills of Mortality," in 1686;
and "Five Essays on Political Arithmetic" (in French and English),
"Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome," in 1687, the last
year of Sir William Petty's life.  Other writings of his were
published in his lifetime, or have been published since his death.
He was in the study of political economy one of the most ingenious
and practical thinkers before the days of Adam Smith.

But the interest of those "Essays in Political Arithmetic" lies
chiefly in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority.
London had become in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city
in Europe, if not in the world.  This Sir William Petty sought to
prove against the doubts of foreign and other critics, and his
"Political Arithmetic" was an endeavour to determine the relative
strength in population of the chief cities of England, France, and
Holland.  His application of arithmetic in the first of these essays
to a census of the population at the Day of Judgment he himself
spoke of slightingly.  It is a curious example of a bygone form of
theological discussion.  But his tables and his reasonings upon them
grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in the
reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his deductions
might be founded.  The references to the deaths by Plague in London
before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very
suggestive; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in
the coming of the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made
in conditions of health by the rebuilding.  Nobody knew, and no one
even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved.

There was in Petty's time no direct numbering of the people.  The
first census in this country was not until more than a hundred years
after Sir William Petty's death, although he points out in these
essays how easily it could be established, and what useful
information it would give.  There was a census taken at Rome 566
years before Christ.  But the first census in Great Britain was
taken in 1801, under provision of an Act passed on the last day of
the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the population every ten
years.  Ireland was not included in the return; the first census in
Ireland was not until the year 1813.

Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills
of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but
fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number
of deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of
diseases first appeared in them in 1629.  The weekly bills were
published every Thursday, and any householder could have them
supplied to him for four shillings a year.  These essays will show
how inferences as to the number of the living were drawn from the
number of the dead.  And even now our Political Arithmetic depends
too much upon rough calculations made from the death register.  It
is seven years since the last census; we have lost count of the
changes in our population to a very great extent, and have to wait
three years before our reckoning can be made sure.  The interval
should be reduced to five years.

Another of Sir William Petty's helps in the arithmetic of population
was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money--
smoke farthings, as the people called them--once paid, according to
Domesday Book, for every chimney in a house.  Charles the Second had
set up a chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the
collection were at the service of Sir William Petty.  The tax
outlived him but two years.  It was promptly abolished in the first
year of William and Mary.

The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of
Political Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon
their calculations.  The next worker in that direction was Gregory
King, Lancaster Herald, whose calculations immediately followed
those of Sir William Petty.  Sir William Petty's essays extended
from 1682 until his death in 1687.  Gregory King's estimates were
made in 1689.  They were a study of the number population and
distribution of wealth among us at the time of the English
Revolution, and the unpublished results were first printed in a
chapter on "The People of England," which formed part a volume
published in 1699 as "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a
People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the Essay
on Ways and Means."  The volume was written by a member of
Parliament in the days of William and Mary, who desired to apply
principles of political economy to the maintenance of English wealth
and liberty.  It has been wrongly scribed to Defoe; and its
suggestion of the plan a trading Corporation for solution of the
whole problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief from
the poor who can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe's
"Essay on Projects."  The chapter, which gives the Political
Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions as
might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and
with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete
essay.  It follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir
William Petty in close sequence of time, and in carrying a like
method of inquiry forward until it reaches a few more conclusions.
I have, therefore, added it to this volume.  It seems, at any rate,
to show how Sir William Petty's books, of which the very small size
grieved the stationer, had a large influence on other minds; his
figures bearing fruit in a new search for facts and careful
reasoning on the condition of the country at one of the most
critical times in English history.

H. M.



THE STATIONER TO THE READER



The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was
entitled "Another Essay," intimating that some other essay had
preceded it, which was not to be found.  I having been much
importuned for that precedent essay, have found that the same was
about the growth, increase, and multiplication of mankind, which
subject should in order of nature precede that of the growth of the
city of London, but am not able to procure the essay itself, only I
have obtained from a gentleman, who sometimes corresponded with Sir
W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir William to him, which I
verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I must
desire the reader to be content therewith, till more can be had.


The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended to
precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London,
&c.  An Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the value and
increase of People and Colonies.

The scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to
make way for "Another Essay" concerning the growth of the city of
London.  I desire in this first essay to give the world some light
concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, and in
Ireland; as also of the number of houses and families wherein they
live, and of acres they occupy.

2.  How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal
estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many
upon alms, how many upon offices and public employments, and how
many as cheats and thieves; how many are impotents, children, and
decrepit old men.

3.  How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary
rates, and how many at the level.

4.  How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are
married or unmarried.

5.  What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland at
a medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as
slaves and servants to one another; with a method how to estimate
the same, in any other country or colony.

6.  How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison to
England and Ireland.

7.  How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best
advantage.

8.  A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may be
fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable
earth.

9.  What spot of the earth's globe were fittest for a general and
universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy
one another's labours and commodities.

10.  Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make

(1) For the good of mankind.

(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God.

(3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous.

11.  An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures and
other good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages of
the world, in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere.

12.  An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and
wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah's Flood.

13.  An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles
through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150
miles thick.

14.  What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place
of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed
stars, if that the whole system of the world was made for the use of
our earth's men.



THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE



1.  That London doubles in forty years, and all England in three
hundred and sixty years.

2.  That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and
about 7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of
acres of profitable land.

3.  That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in all
degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years.

4.  That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year
1800.

5.  A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the
number of people mentioned in them.

6.  That the world will be fully peopled within the next two
thousand years.

7.  Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public
good.

8.  How the city of London may be made (morally speaking)
invincible.

9.  A help to uniformity in religion.

10.  That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four
times more than at present.

11.  The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection
against the growth of the city.

12.  That an exact account of the people is necessary in this
matter.



OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON:  And of the Measures, Periods,
Causes, and Consequences thereof



By the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the
old city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of
Southwark, and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey,
whose houses are contiguous unto, or within call of those
aforementioned.  Or else we mean the housing which stand upon the
ninety-seven parishes within the walls of London; upon the sixteen
parishes next without them; the six parishes of Westminster, and the
fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the
former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended within the weekly
bills of mortality.

The growth of this city is measured.  (1) By the quantity of ground,
or number of acres upon which it stands.  (2) By the number of
houses, as the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3)
By the cubical content of the said housing.  (4) By the flooring of
the same.  (5) By the number of days' work, or charge of building
the said houses.  (6) By the value of the said houses, according to
their yearly rent, and number of years' purchase.  (7) By the number
of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only we make our
computations in this essay.

Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion
of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the
burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary
healthfulness or sickliness.

That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the
bills of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz.,
one whereof is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of
that table which was published in the 117th page of the book of the
observations upon the London bills of mortality, printed in the year
1676.  The other showeth what number of people died at a medium of
two years, indifferently taken, at about twenty years' distance from
each other.

The first of the said two tables.

A.D.    97       16       Out    Buried  Besides of  Christened
     Parishes Parishes Parishes  in all  the Plague
1665  5,320   12,463   10,925    28,708   68,596       9,967
1666  1,689    3,969    5,082    10,740    1,998       8,997
1667    761    6,405    8,641    15,807       35      10,938
1668    796    6,865    9,603    17,267       14      11,633
1669  1,323    7,500   10,440    19,263        3      12,335
1670  1,890    7,808   10,500    20,198               11,997
1671  1,723    5,938    8,063    15,724        5      12,510
1672  2,237    6,788    9,200    18,225        5      12,593
1673  2,307    6,302    8,890    17,499        5      11,895
1674  2,801    7,522   10,875    21,198        3      11,851
1675  2,555    5,986    8,702    17,243        1      11,775
1676  2,756    6,508    9,466    18,730        2      12,399
1677  2,817    6,632    9,616    19,065        2      12,626
1678  3,060    6,705   10,908    20,673        5      12,601
1679  3,074    7,481   11,173    21,728        2      12,288
1680  3,076    7,066   10,911    21,053               12,747
1681  3,669    8,136   12,166    23,971               13,355
1682  2,975    7,009   10,707    20,691               12,653

According to which latter table there died as follows:-


THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES

There died in London at the medium between the years -

1604 and 1605 . . .  5,135.  A.
1621 and 1622 . . .  8,527.  B.
1641 and 1642 . . . 11,883.  C.
1661 and 1662 . . . 15,148.  D.
1681 and 1682 . . . 22,331.  E.


Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over.
That D is double to B within 1,906.  That C and D is double to A and
B within 293.  That E is double to C within 1,435.  That D and E is
double to B and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to
A and B and C within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A.  All
which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of
the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof
in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions.  We also say
that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, because the
burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of
30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations),
maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses
(as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000
souls; the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each
other.

We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in
about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present
number of inhabitants to be about 670,000.  We must now also
endeavour the same for the whole territory of England and Wales.  In
order whereunto, we first say that the assessment of London is about
an eleventh part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the
people of the whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz.,
about 7,369,000 souls; with which account that of the poll-money,
hearth-money, and the bishop's late numbering of the communicants,
do pretty well agree; wherefore, although the said number of
7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will
serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we want at
present.

As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to
be found.  For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the
aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per
annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes
but 24 births for 23 burials.  The which two points, if they were
universally and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say
that the people doubled but in about 1,200 years.  As, for example,
suppose there be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part die per
annum, then there shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24
to 23, then the increase of the people shall be somewhat above half
a man per annum, and consequently the supposed number of 600 cannot
be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to reckon in round numbers,
and for that the aforementioned fractions were not exact, we had
rather call 1,200.

There are also other good observations, that even in the country one
in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five
births for four burials.  Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will
die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the
increase will be five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the
said 600.  So as we have two fair computations, differing from each
other as one to ten; and there are also several other good
observations for other measures.

I might here insert, that although the births in this last
computation be 25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet
that in natural possibility they may be near thrice as many, and
near 75.  For that by some late observations, the teeming females
between 15 and 44 are about 180 of the said 600, and the males of
between 18 and 59 are about 180 also, and that every teeming woman
can bear a child once in two years; from all which it is plain that
the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for sickness, young abortions,
and natural barrenness), there may remain 75 births, which is an
eighth of the people, which by some observations we have found to be
but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shown
to be naturally possible.  Now, according to this reckoning, if the
births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then the annual
increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people may
double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 above-
mentioned.  Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those
vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum,
and pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births
and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10
births for 9 burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per
annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and
two-thirds, and the increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a
man, which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360
years for the time of doubling (including some allowance for wars,
plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be terrible
at the times and places where they happen, yet in a period of 360
years is no great matter in the whole nation.  For the plagues of
England in twenty years have carried away scarce an eightieth part
of the people of the whole nation; and the late ten years' civil
wars  (the like whereof hath not been in several ages before) did
not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people.

According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now
in England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in
the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, A.D. 1560, and about
2,000,000 at the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday
Book, and my Lord Hale's "Origination of Mankind."

Memorandum.--That if the people double in 360 years, that the
present 320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures
of all the nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and
good accounts of the people in several of them) to be now upon the
face of the earth, will within the next 2,000 years so increase as
to give one head for every two acres of land in the habitable part
of the earth.  And then, according to the prediction of the
Scriptures, there must be wars, and great slaughter, &c.

Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference
between 10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this
country, admit of 360 years to be the time wherein the people of
England do double, according to the present laws and practice of
marriages.

Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present
number be 670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and
double in 360 years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it
appears that A.D. 1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880,
and those of the whole country but 10,917,389, which is but
inconsiderably more.  Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the
growth of the city must stop before the said year 1840, and will be
at its utmost height in the next preceding period, A.D. 1800, when
the number of the city will be eight times its present number,
5,359,000.  And when (besides the said number) there will be
4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural works
necessary to be done without the said city, as by the following
table, viz.:-


                  A.D.  Burials   People in       People in
                                    London         England
                  1565    2,568      77,040        5,526,929
As in the    }    1605    5,135
former table }    1642   11,883
             }    1682   22,331     669,930        7,369,230
                  1722   44,662
                  1762   89,324
                  1802  178,648   5,359,440        9,825,650
                  1842  357,296  10,718,889       10,917,389


Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people
of all England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop
before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest
height A.D. 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with
above 4,000,000 for the service of the country and ports, as
aforesaid.

Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200
years for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:- To justify
the Scriptures and all other good histories concerning the number of
the people in ancient time.  For supposing the eight persons who
came out of the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every
ten years, might grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8
to 8,000, and that in 350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah
died) to 1,000,000 and by this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by
rational conjecture are thought to be now in the world), it will not
be hard to compute how, in the intermediate years, the growths may
be made, according to what is set down in the following table,
wherein making the doubling to be ten years at first, and within
1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary liberty, but
justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the rest, which
table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the bigness of
ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of the
world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the
measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have
demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is
written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books.  For if we
pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is
the fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would
have been but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses' time (being 800
years after the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty
years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were
found upon an exact survey appointed by God, whereas our table makes
12,000,000.  And there would have been about 8,000 in David's time,
when were found 1,100,000, of above twenty years old (besides
others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the survey instigated by
Satan, whereas our table makes 32,000,000.  And there would have
been but a quarter of a million about the birth of Christ, or
Augustus's time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great,
whereas our table makes 100,000,000.  Where note, that the
Israelites in about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to
David's reign, increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000.

On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the
world would have been over-peopled 700 years since.  Wherefore no
one number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed
several, in order to make the following table, which we again desire
historians to correct, according to what they find in antiquity
concerning the number of the people in each age and country of the
world.

We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some
sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by
saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter
enough for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less
would the surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number;
whereas we did (by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of
men now living, and also of those that had died since the beginning
of the world, and did withal show, that half the island of Ireland
would afford them all, not only footing to stand upon, but graves to
lie down in, for that whole number; and that two mountains in that
country were as weighty as all the bodies that had ever been from
the beginning of the world to the year 1680, when this dispute
happened.  For which purpose I have digressed from my intended
purpose to insert this matter, intending to prosecute this hint
further upon some more proper occasion.


A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL
AGES OF THE WORLD.

                  A.D., after the Flood.
Periods of       {    1                        8 persons.
doubling         {   10                       16
                 {   20                       32
                 {   30                       64
                 {   40                      128
   In 10 years   {   50                      256
                 {   60                      512
                 {   70                    1,024
                 {   80                    2,048
                 {   90                    4,096
                 {  100                    8,000 and more.
                {   120 years after
   In 20 years  {       the Flood.        16,000
                {   140                   32,000
                 {  170                   64,000
      30         {
                 {  200                  128,000
      40            240                  256,000
      50            290                  512,000
      60            350                1,000,000 and more.
      70            420                2,000,000
     100            520                4,000,000
     190            710                8,000,000
     290          1,000               16,000,000 in Moses' time.
     400          1,400               32,000,000 about David's time.
     550          1,950               64,000,000
     750          2,700              128,000,000 about the birth of
Christ.
   1,000          3,700              256,000,000
     300       {
In             {  4,000              320,000,000
   1,200       {


It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a
different number of years for the time of doubling the people in the
several ages of the world, and might have done the same for the
several countries of the world, and therefore the said several
periods assigned to the whole world in the lump may well enough
consist with the 360 years especially assigned to England, between
this day and the Norman Conquest; and the said 360 years may well
enough serve for a supposition between this time and that of the
world's being fully peopled; nor do we lay any stress upon one or
the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the city of
London.

We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and
periods thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the
same.

The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been
as follows, viz.:- From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the
country to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the
Civil Wars during that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came
to London for their more private and inexpensive living; from 1660
to 1670, the king's friends and party came to receive his favours
after his happy restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of
plots and parliaments might bring extraordinary numbers to the city;
but what reasons to assign for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I
know not, unless I should pick out some remarkable accident
happening in each part of the said period, and make that to be the
cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the cause of every
man's sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore, rather than
so to say quidlibet de quolibet, I had rather quit even what I have
above said to be the cause of London's increase from 1642 to 1682,
and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and
advantages that men find by living in great more than in small
societies, and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of
this growth in the consequences of the like, considered in greater
characters and proportions.

Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is
extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to
draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:-

The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London
is seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are
4,690,000 people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns,
and villages, there are but 2,710,000 more.

The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh
part of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but
96,000, and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do
cohabit thus:  104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that
the rest, being 7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to
one another, viz., in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four
acres of ground belonging to each of them, accounting about
28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole territory of England, Wales,
and the adjacent islands, which any man that pleases may examine
upon a good map.

Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would
be the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings?

But this general question divides itself into the several questions,
relating to the following particulars, viz.:-

1.  For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers.

2.  For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions.

3.  For peace and uniformity in religion.

4.  For the administration of justice.

5.  For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying
the same.

6.  For gain by foreign commerce.

7.  For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and
ornament.

8.  For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling.

9.  For preventing beggars and thieves.

10.  For the advancement and propagation of useful learning.

11.  For increasing the people by generation.

12.  For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious.  And
withal, which of the said two states is most practicable and
natural, for in these and the like particulars do lie the tests and
touchstones of all proposals that can be made for the public good.

First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant
proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to
every man to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the
beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, should be seven times bigger
than now it is, and forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560.  To
which I say, 1.  That the present city of London stands upon less
than 2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as large
may stand upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a circle
of four miles and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in
circumference. 2.  That a circle of ground of thirty-five miles
semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, and timber,
for the 4,690,000 inhabitants of the said city and circle, so as
nothing of that kind need be brought from above thirty-five miles
distance from the said city; for the number of acres within the said
circle, reckoning two acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink-
corn for every head, and two acres will furnish hay for every
necessary horse; and that the trees which may grow in the hedgerows
of the fields within the said circle may furnish timber for 600,000
houses. 3.  That all live cattle and great animals can bring
themselves to the said city; and that fish can be brought from the
Land's End and Berwick as easily as now. 4.  Of coals there is no
doubt:  and for water, 20s. per family (or 600,000 pounds per annum
in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the help of the
New River.  But if by practicable be understood that the present
state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above-mentioned
proposals, I think it is not practicable.  Wherefore the true
question is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant
states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz.,
Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city?  In order
whereunto, we inquire (as to the first question) which state is most
defensible against foreign powers, saying, that if the above-
mentioned housing, and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a
mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of twenty miles
about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a million,
or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one year)
what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond seas, able to
beat--1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse harassed at sea, to
resist all the fresh horse that England could make, and then conquer
above a million of men, well united, disciplined, and guarded within
such a wall, distant everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the
housing, to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy? 2.  As
to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people
united within this great city could easily govern half the said
number scattered without it, and that a few men in arms within the
said city and wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or
armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3.  As to
uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin's parish (may
as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great city also
may as well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels,
in which might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but in
preaching also; for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and
authentically composed sermon might be every week read in each of
the said chapels without any subsequent repetition of the same, as
in the case of homilies.  Whereas in England (wherein are near
10,000 parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other
extraordinary occasions there should be about 100 sermons annum,
making about a million of sermons per annum in the whole) it were a
miracle, if a million of sermons composed by so many men, and of so
many minds and methods, should produce uniformity upon the
discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 of hearers.

4.  As to the administration of justice.  If in this great city
shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things
in England; if within it shall be all the traders, and all the
courts, offices, records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows
that justice may be done with speed and ease.

5.  As to the equality and easy levying of taxes.  It is too certain
that London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England,
and that the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as
those in the country, in proportion to the people of each, and that
the charge of collecting these duties have been about a sixth part
of the duty itself.  Now in this great city the excise alone
according to the present laws would not only be double to the whole
kingdom, but also more equal.  And the duty of hearths of the said
city would exceed the present proceed of the whole kingdom.  And as
for the customs we mention them not at present.

6.  Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce?  The gain
which England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c.,
may be the same, for aught I see, in both cases.  But the gain which
is made by manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself is
greater and better.  For in so vast a city manufactures will beget
one another, and each manufacture will be divided into as many parts
as possible, whereby the work of each artisan will be simple and
easy.  As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man shall
make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave the dial-
plate, and another shall make the cases, then the watch will be
better and cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any one man.
And we also see that in towns, and in the streets of a great town,
where all the inhabitants are almost of one trade, the commodity
peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere.
Moreover, when all sorts of manufactures are made in one place,
there every ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of
so many several particulars and species as the port whereunto she is
bound can take off.  Again, when the several manufactures are made
in one place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, postage, and
travelling charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, and
lessen the gain upon foreign commerce.  And lastly, when the
imported goods are spent in the port itself, where they are landed,
the carriage of the same into other places will create no further
charge upon such commodity; all which particulars tend to the
greater gain by foreign commerce.

7.  As for arts of delight and ornament.  They are best promoted by
the greatest number of emulators.  And it is more likely that one
ingenious curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 than
400 persons.  But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, I
see no reason, but the second state (when each family is charged
with the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best promote the
same.

8.  As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling.

The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all
artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who
live without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow
where they live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be
little.

9.  As to the preventing of beggars and thieves.

I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make
much difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one
in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2.  Those who are
unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought
(for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a
just punishment upon them. 3.  And those who cannot find work
(though able and willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal
application of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the
magistrate and landlord till that can be done; for there need be no
beggars in countries where there are many acres of unimproved
improvable land to every head, as there are in England.  As for
thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same cause;
for it is against Nature that any man should venture his life, limb,
or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate labour will
produce a better.  But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the first
part of his "Utopia."

10.  As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning.

The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning
manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the
great vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto
some assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way
of habitation may not be.

11.  As for the increase of people by generation.  I see no great
difference from either of the two states, for the same may be
hindered or promoted in either from the same causes.

12.  As to the plague.

It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth
in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last
hundred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five
great plagues--viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665.  And it
is also to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill
one-fifth part of the inhabitants.  Now if the whole people of
England do double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the
same is but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000.  But if in the city
of London there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be
about sixty years hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of
them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many in
one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in twenty; and
consequently the people of the nation shall never increase.  But if
the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of
our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of
the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum.  So as if
people be worth 70 pounds per head (as hath elsewhere been shown),
then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and
the whole nation of 1,400,000 pounds per annum, and so pro rata for
a greater or lesser number; wherefore to determine which of the two
states is best--that is to say, towards which of the said two states
authority should bend the present state, a just balance ought to be
made between the disadvantages from the plague, with the advantages
accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, unto which
balance a more exact account of the people, and a better rule for
the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here given,
or are yet able to lay down.


POSTSCRIPT.


It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of
the city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the
whole world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures
concerning the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning
the number of the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day,
&c.  Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions
and impertinences (perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired
that the same might be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as
followeth:-

1.  If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be
under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the
said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully
peopled), and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000
years) the present 320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000.

2.  That the number of all those who have died since the Flood is
the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the
doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by
the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third
column of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one
dying out of 40 per annum out of the whole mass of mankind), which
quotient is 12,570,000,000; whereunto may be added, for those that
died before the Flood, enough to make the last-mentioned number
20,000,000,000, as the full number of all that died from the
beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, if 320,000,000,
the number of those who are now alive, be added, the total of the
quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of the graves
which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting two
bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square
English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves,
and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five
times the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the
last day, in case the same had been in the year 1682.

3.  Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in
Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth
of one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein,
then a turf less than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of
the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all
the bodies that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that
purpose as the two mountains aforementioned in the body of this
discourse.  From all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken
who did so petulantly vilify what the Holy Scriptures have
delivered.




FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; Or, Accounts of the
Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, and Burials in that City.




THE STATIONER TO THE READER.



I have not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition,
but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing
the same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have
been as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the
first edition.


DUBLIN, 1682.

Parishes          Houses   Fireplaces    Baptised    Buried
St. James's          272          836 }
St. Katherine's      540        2,198 }       122       306
St. Nicholas    }
  Without and   }  1,064        4,082         145       414
  St. Patrick's }
St. Bridget's        395        1,903          68       149
St. Audone's         276        1,510          56       164
St. Michael's        174          884          34        50
St. John's           302        1,636          74       101
St. Nicholas       }
  Within and       } 153          902          26        52
Christ Church Lib. }
St. Warburgh's       240        1,638          45       105
St. Michan's         938        3,516         124       389
St. Andrew's         864        3,638         131       300
St. Kevin's          554        2,120 }        87       233
Donnybrook           253          506 }
                   6,025       25,369         912     2,263


The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted -

1.  That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682,
6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of
housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to
consideration.  For the burials of people have increased but from
1,696 to 2,263, according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D.
1671 should A.D. 1682 have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may
be suspected as aforesaid, when farming the hearth-money was in
agitation.

2.  The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-
third of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were
1,696, the one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259,
which is near the number of burials A.D. 1682.  But the hearths A.D.
1671 were 17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but
23,333; whereas the whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-
third and better of the said 5,833 more.

3.  The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had
increased A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but
5,143, or, according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas
they appear 6,025, increasing double to the hearths.  So as it is
likely there hath been some error in the said account of the
housing, unless the new housing be very small, and have but one
chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of them are untenanted.  On
the other hand, it is more likely that when 1,696 died per annum
there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants per house,
would make the number of the people to be 48,000, and the number of
1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30, would have
made the number of inhabitants about 50,000:  for which reason I
continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850
houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from
experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have
increased from 3,850 to 6,025.

Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short,
because that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be
but 48,200; whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according
to the aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number
of people to be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200
is 58,045, which is the best estimate I can make of that matter,
which I hope authority will ere long rectify, by direct and exact
inquiries.

4.  As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at
London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were
five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness
of families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and
not for want of registering.  Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of
2,263, which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of
births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented
to have been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened
A.D. 1671, when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the
christening, and increasing of the burials, shows the increase of
non-registering in the legal books, which must be the increase of
Roman Catholics at Dublin.

The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of
Dublin are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who
do not register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974:  but
of dissenters, none have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose
numbers have increased from about two to five in the said years.
The exacter knowledge whereof may also be better had from direct
inquiries.



OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681:  AND THE
STATE OF THAT CITY.



The observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new
light to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin
may serve as snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer.

The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near
one hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling
London bills, out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the
families and hearths in each parish of Dublin, which are all
digested into the one table or sheet annexed, consisting of three
parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C of public economy,
and even of that policy which tends to peace and plenty.


Observations upon the Table A.


1.  The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling
years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or
sixth part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may
appear by the late bills of that city.

2.  The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth
part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the
burials, and shows that London would in time decrease quite away,
were it not supplied out of the country, where are about five births
for four burials, the proportion of breeders in the country being
greater than in the city.

3.  The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the
sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth
part of the London burials, and about a fifth part over.  So as the
people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as
those of Dublin.

4.  The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part
or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of
the 1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials
and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are
kept alike, and consequently are likely to be true, there being no
confederacy for that purpose; which, if they be true, we then say -

5.  That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the
people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase
and decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more
contingencies and variety of causes.

6.  If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the
births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths
of the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not
considerable for extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the
rule whereby to measure the same.  As for example, the medium of
births in Dublin was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but
the real burials were 1,644; so as in the said years they differed
little from the 1,641, which was the standard of health, and
consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more
or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and the rest were
healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same
number.  But the city was more or less populous, as the births
differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680,
1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births
are very occult and uncertain.

7.  What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London.

8.  It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are
more males than females.  It is to be further noted, that in these
six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the
births or burials to the contrary.

9.  It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most
die fewest are born, and vice versa.  The same may be further
observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then
most die:  for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is
above the mean proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but
as nineteen to eighteen, which is below the same.


Observations upon the Table B.


1.  From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen
years' burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of the
other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the
fifteen years' births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the
medium of the said other six years was 1,026.  That is to say, there
were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than in
the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there
were fewer people also.

2.  The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof
eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said
fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the
standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the
said table.

3.  That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the
standard of people's increase and decrease from the year 1666 to
1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary,
and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but
re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other.

4.  That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials
being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard.

5.  That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of
Dublin have probably increased also.

Observations upon the Table C.

1.  First, from the Table C it appears, 1.  That the housing of
Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one
with another, but nearer five than four.

2.  That in St. Warburgh's parish are near six hearths to a house.
In St. John's five.  In St. Michael's above five.  In St. Nicholas
Within above six.  In Christ Church above seven.  In St. James's and
St. Katherine's, and in St. Michan's, not four.  In St. Kevin's
about four.

3.  That in St. James's, St. Michan's, St. Bride's, St. Warburgh's,
St. Andrew's, St. Michael's, and St. Patrick's, all the christenings
were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in
the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials
seven, viz., as 457 to 634.  Now whether the cause of this
difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness of the
families, &c., is worth inquiring.

4.  It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes
ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some
most births, and others most burials.  Some parishes exceeding the
rest in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none
in all four.  Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the
plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the
other.

5.  The London observations reckon eight heads in each family,
according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000
families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of
which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the
royal regiment.

6.  Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a
principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births
and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and
calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and
burials, may be ingenious, but very preposterous.

7.  If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men
in one week (at the charge of about 5 pounds surveying eight
families in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an
account of the whole people, expressing their several ages, sex,
marriages, title, trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the
hearths, or the constables or the parish clerks (may, if required)
do the same ex officio, and without other charge, by the command of
the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor.

8.  The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several
alterations and improvements, and 8 or 10 pounds per annum
surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and
become an excellent instrument of Government.  To which purpose the
forms for weekly, quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly
recommended, viz.

TABLE A--       YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR
A.D.             LONDON      and         DUBLIN.
           Burials     Births      Burials     Births
1680        21,053     12,747        1,826      1,096
1679        21,730     12,288        1,397      1,061
1678        20,678     12,601        1,401      1,045
1674        21,201     11,851        2,106        942
1672        18,230     12,563        1,436        987
1668        17,278     11,633        1,699      1,026
           120,170     73,683        9,865      6,157
The medium
or 6th part
whereof is
part whereof
is          20,028     12,280        1,644      1,026

TABLE A--CONTINUED

A.D.                    LONDON.
             BURIALS.                  BIRTHS.
           Male    Female          Male      Female
1680     11,039    10,044         6,543       6,041
1679     11,154    10,576         6,247       6,041
1678     10,681     9,977         6,568       6,033
1674     11,000    10,196         6,113       5,738
1672      9,560     8,070         6,443       6,120
1668      9,111     8,167         6,073       5,566
         62,545    57,030        37,992      35,697
The medium
or 6th part
whereof is
part whereof
is       10,424     9,505         6,332       5,949

TABLE B.--DUBLIN.

A.D.          Burials  Births     In Ternaries of Years
1666          1,480     952 }
1667          1,642   1,001 }      4,821     2,979
1668          1,699   1,026 }
1669          1,666   1,000  }
1670          1,713   1,067  }     5,353     3,070
1671          1,974   1,003  }
1672          1,436     967 }
1673          1,531     933 }      5,073     2,842
1674          2,106     942 }
1675          1,578     823  }
1676          1,391     952  }     4,328     2,672
1677          1,359     897  }
1678          1,401   1,045 }
1679          1,397   1,061 }      4,624     3,202
1680          1,826   1,096 }
             24,199  14,765       24,199    14,765
The medium   }
or 15th      }1,613     984        1,613       984
part whereof }
is           }

TABLE C.

THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN            A.D.            A.D., 1670-71-72
                                  1671.            at a medium
                             Families Hearths     Births  Burials
St. Katherine's                   661   2,399        161    290
    and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without              490   2,348        207    262
St. Michan's                      656   2,301        127    221
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook      483   2,123        108    178
St. Bridget's                     416   1,989         70    100
St. John's                        244   1,337         70    138
St. Warburgh's                    267   1,650         54    103
St. Audaen's                      216   1,081         53    121
St. Michael's                     140     793         44     59
St. Kevin's                       106     433         64    133
St. Nicholas Within                93     614         28     34
St. Patrick's Liberties            52     255         21     44
Christ Church and Trinity
    College, per estimate          26     197          -      1
                                3,850  17,500       1,013 1,696

Houses built between 1671 and
1681, per estimate                150     550
                                4,000  18,150

A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN,
Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681.

PARISHES' NAMES.
St. Katharine's and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without
St. Michan's
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook
St. Bridget's
St. John's
St. Warburgh's
St. Audaen's
St. Michael's
St. Kevin's
St. Nicholas Within
St. Patrick's Liberties
Christ Church and Trinity College
Totals

[The columns for the table are:  Births, Males, Females, Burials,
Under 16 years old, Plague, Small Pox, Measles, Spotted Fever.  In
the book there are no figures in the table at all.--DP.]


A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY,
Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN
PARISHES' NAMES.
St. Katharine's and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without
St. Michan's
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook
St. Bridget's
St. John's
St. Warburgh's
St. Audaen's
St. Michael's
St. Kevin's
St. Nicholas Within
St. Patrick's Liberties
Christ Church and Trinity College
Totals

[The columns for the table are:  Births 1.; Marriages 2.; Buried
under 16 years olds; Buried above 60 years old; Measles, Spotted
Fever, Small Pox, Plague; Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, Stone; Fever,
Pleurisy, Quinsy, Sudden Death; Aged above 70 years old; Infants
under 2 years old; All other Casualties.  In the book there are no
figures in the table at all.--DP.]


AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR,
Ending the 24th of March, 1681.
PARISHES' NAMES.
St. Katharine's and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without
St. Michan's
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook
St. Bridget's
St. John's
St. Warburgh's
St. Audaen's
St. Michael's
St. Kevin's
St. Nicholas Within
St. Patrick's Liberties
Christ Church and Trinity College
Totals

[The columns for the table are:  Number of person; Males; Females;
Remarried Persons; Persons under 16 years old; Persons above 60
years old; Protestants of above 16 years old; Papists of above 16
years old; Of all other religions above 16 years old; Births;
Burials; Marriages.  In the book there are no figures in the table
at all.--DP.]


CASUALTIES AND DISEASES.
Aged above 70 years          Epilepsy and planet
Abortive and still-born      Fever and ague
Childbed women               Pleurisy
Convulsion                   Quinsy
Teeth                        Executed, murdered,
Worms                                  drowned
Gout and sciatica            Plague and spotted fever
Stone                        Griping of the guts
Palsy                        Scouring, vomiting
Consumption and French                 bleeding
         pox                 Small pox
Dropsy and tympany           Measles
Rickets and livergrown       Neither of all the other
Headache and megrim                    sorts



A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER.



Whereas you complain that these observations make no sufficient
bulk, I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were
less; but do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows,
viz.:

1.  That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in
them above 600 families, and others under thirty.

2.  That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the
middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to
which rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin.

3.  It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London,
which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the
births and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin,
which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and
straitened in their housing than those of London; and consequently
that to increase the buildings of Dublin will make that city more
conformable to London.

4.  I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of
the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here
recommended--viz.:

1.  We give the distinctions of males and females in the births
only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the
same proportion with the births.

2.  We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be
taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy,
and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses
to be made of that distinction.

3.  We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-
four, being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without
art, conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account.
And in the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads--
viz., contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to
parishes, in order to know how the different situation, soil, and
way of living in each parish doth dispose men to each of the said
three species; and in the weekly bills we take notice not only of
the plague, but of the other contagious diseases in each parish,
that strangers and fearful persons may thereby know how to dispose
of themselves.

4.  We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in
all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost
fruitless.

5.  We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in
every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the
whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the
nation.

6.  As for religions, we reduce them to three--viz.:  (1) those who
have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the
laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their
own private judgments.  Now, whether these distinctions should be
taken notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many
reasons pro and con for the same; and, therefore, although we have
mentioned it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave
it to authority.




TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,
Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals, &c., of London and Paris.




TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.



I do presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your
City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of
the French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any
other of the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and
by such demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray
your Majesty to accept from

Your Majesty's
Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject,
WILLIAM PETTY.



AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC



Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the
cities of Paris and Rouen put together, and is also more
considerable in several other respects.

1.  The medium of the burials at London in the three last years--
viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary
sickness, and wherein the christenings do correspond in their
ordinary proportions with the burials and christenings of each year
one with another, was 22,337, and the like medium of burials for the
three last Paris bills we could procure--viz., for the years 1682,
1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as appears by the christenings to
have been very sickly), is 19,887.

2.  The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of
its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of
Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and
consequently more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682
(being a sickly year) but 2,263.

3.  Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the
burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes
but 22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337,
or as about 6 to 7.

4.  If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L'Hotel
Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or
any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials
aforementioned, then our assertion will be stronger, and more
proportionable to what follows concerning the housing of those
cities, viz.:

5.  There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses,
which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of
houses in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary
burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686,
above one-third the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must
be about 87,000, which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been
84,000.

6.  Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late
geographical dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the
world, doth reckon but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors
and knowing men much less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the
city of Dublin, so as if the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000
houses in the city of Dublin were added together, the total is but
57,000 houses, whereas those of London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or
as 6 to 9.

7.  As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common
sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris
and Rouen put together.

8.  As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London
and Paris by law-suits (or La chicane) I only say that the courts of
London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of
people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far.  Moreover,
there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number
and wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two
Temples, Lincoln's Inn, Gray's Inn, Doctors' Commons, and the seven
other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London,
besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same.

9.  As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say,

(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6
to 7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the
people do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but
can afford themselves more room and liberty.

(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than
those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of
fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out
of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the
hospitals at London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion
die out of the Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is
to say, the number of those at London, who choose to lie sick in
hospitals rather than in their own houses, are to the like people of
Paris as one to twenty; which shows the greater poverty or want of
means in the people of Paris than those of London.

(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of
sixteen out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the
best of Paris, to say nothing of L'Hotel Dieu, that either the
physicians and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris,
or that the air of London is more wholesome.

10.  As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the
greatest we need say no more in behalf of London.  As for Pekin in
China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything
in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor
from that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and
1683, which can make us recant what we have said concerning London.
As for Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing
against our position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend
that emperor in his business and pleasures.

11.  We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for
Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the
greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged
in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances;
to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200
per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London
never carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is
commonly believed that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities,
and even in Italy and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths,
one half, or more; wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the
people it is probable that the number was greater, than where 1,500
was two-fifths or one half, &c.

12.  As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten
weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague
comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or
three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was
probably the number of those that died of the plague in one whole
year at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were
brought to account to have died in that year.  Wherefore it is
certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the
people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or
the half.

We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing,
shipping, and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for
aught yet appears, is more considerable than any other city in the
universe, which was propounded to be proved.



AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC



Tending to prove that in the hospital called L'Hotel Dieu at Paris,
there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation.

1.  It appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La
Charite 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year
338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in
the same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 21,491, and that there
died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as
about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want
of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La
Charite.

2.  Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charite 3,118,
of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the
same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 28,635, of which there
died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very
different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L'Hotel
Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491--in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063;
and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and
8,397--in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013.

3.  There entered in the said years into La Charite 2,647 and 3,118,
in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338
and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395.

4.  Now, if there died out of L'Hotel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that
the proportion of those that died out of L'Hotel Dieu is double to
those that died out of La Charite (as by the above numbers it
appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that half the said
numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but
by the evil administration of that hospital.

5.  This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and
rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but
considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more
reconciled to the belief of it, viz.:-

(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent
out and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of
the said hospital 252.  Moreover, there were sent out and cured out
of St. Thomas's Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209--that is to say,
there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both
hospitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which
number the 461 buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La
Charite the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows
that out of the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there
died fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris.

(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La
Charite at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables,
making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew's and St.
Thomas's Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which
Les Incurables are part; which shows that although there be more
people in London than in Paris, yet there went at London not so many
people to hospitals as there did at Paris, although the poorest
hospitals at London were better than the best at Paris; which shows
that the poorest people at London have better accommodation in their
own houses than the best hospital of Paris affordeth.

6.  Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris
unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the
value of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows,
viz., the value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head,
being about the value of Argier slaves (which is less than the
intrinsic value of people at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects
of France in that hospital seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres
sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, equivalent to
about 2,524,320 French livres.

7.  It hath appeared that there came into L'Hotel Dieu at a medium
25,063 per annum, or 2,089 per mensem, and that the whole stock of
what remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as
may appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be
shortly published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the
sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of
months for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the
2,108 above mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which
entered each month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are
supposed to be always in L'Hotel Dieu one time with another.

8.  Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197
sick persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that
hospital (amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that
so many lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum,
and this by doing a manifest deed of charity to mankind.

Memorandum.--That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and
those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it
is probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of
Amsterdam.




OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME




1.  That before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded
the burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce
half; and now about two-thirds.

2.  Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the
people of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put
together, whereas now, the people of London are more than those of
Paris and Rome, or of Paris and Rouen.

3.  A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or
97,000, died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000
houses, or one fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt
also.

4.  At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the
world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II.,
and near six times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000
souls besides Jews.

5.  In the years of King Charles II.'s death, and King James II.'s
coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary
sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree,
viz., A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222,
the medium whereof is 23,212.  And the christenings did very
wonderfully agree also, having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D.
1685, 14,732, the medium whereof is 14,716, which consistence was
never seen before, the said number of 23,212 burials making the
people of London to be 696,360, at the rate of one dying per annum
out of 30.

6.  Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of 15
of the present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people
increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put
together, the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and
the other of the Papacy.




FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC




I.  Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier
Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as
many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together.

II.  A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars.

III.  Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the
bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people.

IV.  An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice,
Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the
same.

V.  Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces.



TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY

Sir,

Your Majesty having graciously accepted my two late essays, about
the cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my
observations on Rome and Rouen; I do (after six months' waiting for
what may be said against my several doctrines by the able men of
Europe) humbly present your Majesty with a few other papers upon the
same subject, to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping
by such real arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty,
than by any other the most specious words and eulogies that can be
imagined by

Your Majesty's
Most humble, loyal
And obedient subject,
WILLIAM PETTY.



THE FIRST ESSAY.



It could not be expected that an assertion of London's being bigger
than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and
bigger than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and
'tis also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion),
should make some reply to those contradictions.  In order whereunto,

I begin with the ingenious author of the "Republique des Lettres,"
who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in
the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of
that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan
temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest,
for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no
mosques till about 50 years after.

In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout's
"Letters from Rome," who is content that London, Westminster, and
Southwark may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but
faintly denieth, that all the housing within the bills may have
almost as many people as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several
parishes inserted into these bills are distant from, and not
contiguous with London, and that Grant so understood it.

To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: --(l)
That the London bills appear in Grant's book to have been always,
since the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years
since, three or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were
joined by interposed buildings to the bulk of the city, and
therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) That since fifty years
the whole buildings being more than double have perfected that
union, so as there is no house within the said bills from which one
may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by
authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5)
That there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception
which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole.

Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout's large letter,
dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every
paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war
against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in
truth, it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have
chosen the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as
followeth, viz.:-

Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen,
and Rome, viz.:-

Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223
houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and
therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of
the said houses, one with another, the number of families will be
81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family,
the utmost number of people in Paris, according to that opinion,
will be 487,680.

The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to
be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the
L'Hotel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the
former, the net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as
the number of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty
(which is more advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout's opinion
of one to die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will
be 491,430 more than by Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned account
491,430.

And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.

The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied
by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people
there will be 696,360.

The number of houses at London appears by the register to be
105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as
the least number of double families that can be supposed in London,
the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for
each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at
London will be 695,076.

The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718.

So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is
488,055.
Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout's utmost demands 80,000.
Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter
125,000.
Total 693,055.

So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome
by 2,663.

Memorandum.--That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney,
for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one-
fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality,
and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more
people than Paris and Rouen put together, by 114,284.

Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city
of France contains.



THE SECOND ESSAY.



As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and
enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as
followeth, viz.:-

1.  That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so
many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion
out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better
than the best of Paris.

2.  That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000
street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living
than at London.

3.  Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the
burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little
equipage.

4.  The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine,
and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London
is the most considerable of all Europe.

5.  The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater
than that at Paris and Rouen.

6.  The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and
are worth 140,000 pounds sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres,
besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere.

7.  The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of
sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of
fifteen out of the best.  Moreover the burials of Paris are one-
fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one-
twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater
than at London.

8.  The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a
wholesome sulphurous bitumen.

9.  All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are
cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.

10.  The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that
nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be,
nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel.

11.  On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in
Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking,
quadruple to that of England) be lodged there.

12.  Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested
with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which
between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every
fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth
of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and
there is a visible way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same
by two-thirds when it next appeareth.

13.  As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London,
we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris,
for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families
of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if
there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then
the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to
sixty-five, or as twenty-three to thirteen.

14.  Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles
long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five
and a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and
a quarter broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square
miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from
that of thirteen to twenty-three.

15.  Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Monsieur Chivreau
reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now
if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country,
as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that
time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about
700,000.  Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a
circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square
miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen
square miles, whereas the built ground at London is about nine
square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions agree with
each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been half as
big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries.



THE THIRD ESSAY.



Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London
bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about
696,000, viz. -

I know but three ways of finding the same.

1.  By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.

2.  By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the
proportion of those that live, to those that die.

3.  By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential
years, in proportion to those that escape.


The First Way.


To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. -

1.  The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by
authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who
died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686,
to be but one seventh part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth,
from whence I infer the whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have
been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of
1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D.
1686.

2.  Those who have been employed in making the general map of
London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they
had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686,
or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more
(London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be
92,400.

3.  I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and
6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must
have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London.  Moreover I found
that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307
houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate
there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium
between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.

Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses
within the bills of mortality to be 105,315.

Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of
families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or
four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be
two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which
supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with
my own conjectures.

As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's
observation in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of
London's families there be eight heads one with another, in families
of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according
to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium
of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but
quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for
six.

To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of
double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same
by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.


The Second Way.


I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and
both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684
they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is
23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those
A.D. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials
23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which
made the number of people 696,360 souls.

Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say
-

1.  That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from
observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same
proportion.

2.  I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons,
there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament
men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with
another, probably lived above 30 years each.

3.  Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per
annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout
thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion
of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the
number 30.

4.  In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I
find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507,
wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many
observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in
multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the
product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are
695,076, as aforesaid.


The Third Way.


It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the
plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons,
the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year
1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665
and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other
two computations above mentioned.

Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be
put in its place.

Memorandum.  That two or three hundred new houses would make a
contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134
already mentioned in the bills of mortality:  and that an oval wall
of about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the
shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000
acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast
advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to
the whole nation and government.



THE FOURTH ESSAY.



Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of
Christendom undernamed, viz.:-

1.  We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the
proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the
number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London,
and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of
people in that city to be at a medium 695,718.

2.  We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz.,
81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or
that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors;
as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily
there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium
to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing
with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or
families.

3.  To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number
of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.

4.  To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special
account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city
abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the
Turks.

5.  To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all
125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by
Monsieur Auzout.

6.  To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the
medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.

7.  As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give
69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above
56,000 people.  Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give
69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000;
but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.

8.  As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout's fancy of
80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men
that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris,
and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we
estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000
people in it.

Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so
little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think
it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign
trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that
part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.

All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and
candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers
under-mentioned.


London         696,000
Paris          488,000
Amsterdam      187,000
Venice         134,000
Rome           125,000
Dublin          69,000
Bristol         48,000
Rouen           66,000


Observations on the said Eight Cities.


1.  That the people of Paris being    488,000
                       Rome           125,000
                       Rouen           66,000
                do make in all but    679,000

or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.

2.  That the people of the two English cities and emporiums--viz.,
of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000--do make 744,000, or more
than

In Paris     488,000
Amsterdam    187,090
Rouen         66,000
Being in all 741,000

3.  That the same two English cities seem equivalent

To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls.
   Rouen              66,000
   Lyons             100,000
   Toulouse           90,000
In all               744,000

If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities
of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be
now at work upon that matter.

4.  That the King of England's three cities, viz.

London  696,000        { Paris       488,000
Dublin   69,000 exceed { Amsterdam   187,000
Bristol  48,000        { Venice      134,000
In all  813,000          Being but   809,000

5.  That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and
Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7
to 4.

Amsterdam   187,000 }
Venice      134,000 } 387,000
Rouen        66,000 }       2
                      774,000  London 696,000

6.  That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most
considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest
emporium.

When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we
shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the
honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.



THE FIFTH ESSAY.



Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.

Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland,
that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in
London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London
would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland.  To which
is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more,
that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is
the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often
heard.  For suppose Amsterdam hath--as we have elsewhere noted--
187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with
another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten
smallest at 6,000 each 60,000--in all, the twenty-eight walled
cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages
193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land;
whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the
cities and market-towns.

Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven
heads in each--the medium between MM. Auzout's and Grant's
reckonings--the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we
reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four--the medium between
thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned--the total of the people
would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between
which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding
800,000, the supposed number of Holland.

Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of
the world, I never found that in any country--not in China itself--
there was more than one man to every English acre of land:  many
territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for
ten such acres.  I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (alias
North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many
such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres.  I
therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the
people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above
two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection
above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from
696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that
purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set
forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map
appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the
same to be but 85,000.

The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also
saith -

1.  That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other
six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England,
and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say,
2,000,000 souls.  2.  He says that in London and Amsterdam, and
other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that
in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families.  3.  He excepteth
against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223
houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the
register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London,
with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses;
and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be
in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to
each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as
follows, viz.:-

1.  That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all
Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000,
wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of
all Holland by 46,000.

2.  If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all
England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times
488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris,
there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks
that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in
every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be
scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit
to be reconsidered.

I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is,
that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for
that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it
might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the
Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the
same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England's
subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that
the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000.  To which
we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this
objector's own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000
souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and
we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that
Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey,
hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all
9,800,000; whereas by the objector's doctrine, if the seven
provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England's territories
should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000,
whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross
as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.

To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that
they would prove -

1.  That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and
cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.

2.  That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all
Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better
housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that
King James the Second came to the empire thereof.




OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.




Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and
forming part of "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a
People gainers in the Balance of Trade."  Published in 1699.


The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political
observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England
by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript.  The
calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps
to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like
kind.  This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right
course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people,
for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully
inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts,
and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by
reasonable and discreet mediums:  besides which pains, he has made
observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from
which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others,
so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any
other person.

With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his
computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before
us.

He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony
or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people
(which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought
over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or
900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth
of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000
families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.

From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of
increase -

That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before
Christ's time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at
Christ's birth about 400,000.

That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain
somewhat above 2,000,000.

That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it
might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number:
so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years
last past.

That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years
to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about
11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of
acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.

That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last
preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may
have been and in all probability may be, according to the following
scheme:-


Anno          Number of         Increase every
Domini.       people.           hundred years.
1300          2,800,000
1400          3,300,000             440,000.
1500          3,840,000             540,000.
1600          4,620,000             780,000.
1700          5,500,000             880,000.
1800          6,420,000             920,000.
1900          7,350,000             930,000.
2000          8,280,000             930,000.
2100          9,205,000             925,000.
2200         10,115,000             910,000.
2300         11,000,000             885,000.

Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000
people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding
hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000
souls per annum.

But whereas the yearly births of the
   kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or  190,000 souls.
And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls.
Whereby the yearly increase would be  20,000 souls.

It is to be noted--                Per ann.

1.  That the allowance for
    plagues and great mortalities
    may come to at a medium         4,000
2.  Foreign or civil wars at a
    medium                          3,500
3.  The sea constantly employing              11,000 per annum.
    about 40,000, may precipitate   2,500
    the death of about
4.  The plantations (over and above
    the accession of foreigners)    1,000
    may carry away
Whereby the net annual increase may
be but                              9,000 souls.

That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of
the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned
abatements.

The country increases annually
  by procreation                   20,000 souls.
The cities and towns, exclusive
  of London, by procreation         2,000 souls.
But London and the bills of
  mortality decrease annually       2,000 souls.


So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it
from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum
for its increase at this time.  In all 5,000, or above a half of the
kingdom's net increase.

Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages,
births, and burials, and the collectors' returns thereupon, and by
the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages,
births, and burials are according to the following scheme


Vide Scheme A.


Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there
are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78
marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London,
producing 376 children.

Whereby it follows -

1.  That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than
in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of
breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great
towns are more prolific than the country.

2.  That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as
those in the country, London would increase in people much faster
pro rata than the country.

3.  That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer
children than the country marriages seem to be -

(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.

(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.

(3) From a greater intentness on business.

(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.

(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.

(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the
country.

He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the
said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and
vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and
burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and
females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:-


SCHEMA A


People                                   Annual Marriages
Producing

children
                                                    In all     each

530,000   London and bills of mortality  1 in 106    5,000       4.0
870,000   The cities and market towns    1 in 128    6,800       4.5
4,100,000 The villages and hamlets       1 in 141   29,200       4.8
5,500,000                                1 in 134   41,000
4.64

                                   Annual Births   Annual Burials
                                          In all                In
all
London and bills of mortality 1 in 26.5   20,000    1 in 24.1
22,000
The cities and market towns   1 in 28.5   30,600    1 in 30.4
28,600
The villages and hamlets      1 in 29.4   29,200    1 in 34.4
119,400
                              1 in 28.95 190,000    1 in 32.35
170,000


Vide Scheme B.


So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and
the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.

SCHEME B.

                  Males Females      Males    Females       Both
In London and          10 to 13    230,000    300,000    530,000
  bills of mortality
In the other cities      8 to 9    410,000    460,000    870,000
  and market-towns
In the villages and   100 to 99  2,060,000  2,040,000  4,100,000
   hamlets
                       27 to 28  2,700,000  2,800,000  5,500,000

That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to
bear these proportions.

                                People.      Males.    Females.
Husbands and wives            1,900,000     950,000     950,000
  at above,        34.5%
Widowers at above   1.5%         90,000      90,000
Widows at about     4.5%        240,000                 240,000
Children at above  45%        2,500,000   1,300,000   1,200,000
Servants at about  10.5%        560,000     260,000     300,000
Sojourners and
   single persons   4%          210,000      100,000    110,000
                  100%        5,500,000    2,700,000  2,800,000

And that the different proportions in each of the said articles
between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better
appear, he has formed the following scheme:-

       London and Bills    The other Cities     The Villages and
          of Mortality.    and great Towns.             Hamlets.
                 Souls.          Souls.                   Souls.
Husbands
and
Wives      37%  196,100        36%  313,200    34%    1,394,000
Widowers    2%   10,600         2%   17,400     1.5%     61,500
Widows      7%   37,100         6%   52,200     4.5%    184,500
Children   33%  174,900        40%  348,000    47%    1,927,000
Servants   13%   68,900        11%   95,700    10%      410,000
Sojourners  8%   42,400         5%   43,500     3%      123,000
          100%  530,000       100%  870,000   100%    4,100,000


SCHEME B (Continued)


He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the
yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several
ages of the people may be as follows:


                              In all            Males
Females
Those under 1 years old       170,000           88,500
81,500
Those under 5 years old       820,000          413,300
406,700
Those under 10 years old    1,520,000          762,900
757,100
Those above 16 years old    3,260,000        1,578,000
1,682,000
Those above 21 years old    2,700,000        1,300,000
1,400,000
Those above 25 years old    2,400,000        1,152,000
1,248,000
Those above 60 years old      600,000          270,000
330,000
Those under 16 years old    2,240,000
Those above 16 years old    3,260,000
Total of the people         5,500,000


That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof
those under twenty-five years are 25.5 per cent., and those above
twenty-five years are 2.5 per cent.

That the maidens are about 28.5 per cent. of the whole.

Whereof those under 25 years are 26.5 per cent.

And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.

That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one
with another, 27 years and a half.

That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living
under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the
males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.

That the ages of the people, according to their several
distinctions, are as follows, viz.:-


Vide Scheme C.


Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of
the income and expense of the several families of England,
calculated for the year 1688.

SCHEME C


The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17.25% makes 742
years.
The wives             40                         17.25%      690
The widowers          56                          1.5%        84
The widows            60                          4.5%       270
The children          12                         45%         540
The servants          27                         10.5%       284
The sojourners        35                          4%         140
At a medium           27.5                      100        2,750



Vide Scheme D.


Mr. King's modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to
communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more
safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by
some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and
compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure
in the like studies.

What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is
no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in
that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that
supposing the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300,
2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all
writers they may probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but
if they were A.D. 1300 either less or more, the case must
proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great
mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem
very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.

Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though
the text deserves much a better comment.



SCHEME D.--A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL
                   FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR
                   1688
Number of      Ranks, Degrees and          Heads per
 Families.     Qualifications                Family.
      160 Temporal Lords                          40
       26 Spiritual Lords                         20
      800 Baronets                                16
      600 Knights                                 13
    3,000 Esquires                                10
   12,000 Gentlemen                                8
    5,000 Persons in greater offices and places    8
    5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places     6
    2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea     8
    8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea      6
   10,000 Persons in the law                       7
    2,000 Eminent clergymen                        6
    8,000 Lesser clergymen                         5
   40,000 Freeholders of the better sort           7
  120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort           5.5
  150,000 Farmers                                  5
   15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences     5
   50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen                4.5
   60,000 Artisans and handicrafts                 4
    5,000 Naval officers                           4
    4,000 Military officers                        4
  500,586                                          5.33
   50,000 Common seamen                            3
  364,000 Labouring people and out-servants        3.5
  400,000 Cottagers and paupers                    3.25
   35,000 Common soldiers                          2
  849,000
          Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves,
          beggars, &c.                             3.25
  500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom     5.33
  849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom     3.25
1,349,586 Net totals                               4 1/13


[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page.  It has
been split down the middle--DP.]


  Number    Yearly     Yearly    Yearly Yearly   Yearly    Yearly
    of      Income     Income    Income Expense  Increase  Incr.
  Persons   per.       in        per.   per      per.      in
            Family     general   Hd.    Hd.      Hd.       General
               P.  s.     P.     P. s.  P. s. d.  P.s. d.    P.
    6,400  3,200  0      512,000 80  0  70  0  0 10  0 0    64,000
      520  1,300  0       33,800 65  0  45  0  0 20  0 0    10,400
   12,800    880  0      704,000 55  0  49  0  0  6  0 0    76,800
    7,800    650  0      390,000 50  0  45  0  0  5  0 0    39,000
   30,000    450  0    1,200,000 45  0  41  0  0  4  0 0   120,000
   96,000    280  0    2,880,000 35  0  32  0  0  3  0 0   288,000
   40,000    240  0    1,200,000 30  0  26  0  0  4  0 0   160,000
   30,000    120  0      600,000 20  0  17  0  0  3  0 0    90,000
   16,000    400  0      800,000 50  0  37  0  0 13  0 0   208,000
   48,000    198  0    1,600,000 33  0  27  0  0  6  0 0   288,000
   70,000    154  0    1,540,000 22  0  18  0  0  4  0 0   280,000
   12,000     72  0      144,000 12  0  10  0  0  2  0 0    24,000
   40,000     50  0      400,000 10  0   9  4  0  0 16 0    32,000
  280,000     91  0    3,640,000 13  0  11 15  0  1  5 0   350,000
  660,000     55  0    6,600,000 10  0   9 10  0  0 10 0   330,000
  750,000     42 10    6,375,000  8 10   8  5  0  0  5 0   187,500
   75,000     60  0      900,000 12  0  11  0  0  1  0 0    75,000
  225,000     45  0    2,250,000 10  0   9  0  0  1  0 0   225,000
  240,000     38  0    2,280,000  9 10   9  0  0  0 10 0   120,000
   20,000     80  0      400,000 20  0  18  0  0  2  0 0    40,000
   16,000     60  0      240,000 15  0  14  0  0  1  0 0    16,000
2,675,520     68 18   34,488,800 12 18  l1 15  4  1  2 8 3,023,700
                                                 Decrease.Decrease.
  150,000     20  0    1,000,000  7  0   7 10  0  0 10 0     75,000
1,275,000     15  0    5,460,000  4 10   4 12  0  0  2 0    127,500
1,300,000      6 10    2,000,000  2  0   2  5  0  0  5 0    325,000
   70,000     14  0      490,000  7  0   7 10  0  0 10 0     35,000
2,795,000     10 10    8,950,000 3   5   3  9  0  0  4 0    562,500
   30,000                 60,000  2  0   4  0  0  2  0 0     60,000
     So the General Account is
2,675,520     68 18   34,488,800 12 18  11 15  4  1  2 8  3,023,700
2,825,000     10 10    9,010,000  3  3   3  7  6  0  4 6    622,500
5,500,520     32  5   43,491,800  7 18   7  9  3  0  8 9  2,401,200

The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose
labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their
increase or decrease must be carefully observed by any government
that designs to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by
good conduct and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by
war, or any other accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as
possible, for it is a maim in the body politic affecting all its
parts.

Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous,
as liberty and property have been there well or ill secured.  The
first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly
power limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from
a small beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able
to send out an army of 80,000 men.  And in the time of the
commonwealth, in that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not
long before Hannibal came thither, they were grown so numerous, as
that their troops consisted of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is
true their allies were comprehended in this number, but the ordinary
people fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome and Campania,
amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse.

Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England
populous and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and
our legal constitution firmly preserved.  A nation may be as well
called free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is
to this good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling
of the people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last
past.  And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of
others, should bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and
to give up our ancient rights, we shall find our numbers diminish
visibly and fast.  For liberty encourages procreation, and not only
keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites strangers to come
and live under the shelter of our laws.

The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge
their city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations
into their commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs.
For the strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to
have so great a vote in the councils, that the whole Government
began to totter, and decline from its old to its new inhabitants,
which Fabius the censor observing, he applied a remedy in time by
reducing all the new citizens into four tribes, that being
contracted into so narrow a space, they might not have so malignant
an influence upon the city.

An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase
our numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in
our people by the late war.  It is a matter that has been very
warmly contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it
carries also its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less
influence by this expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were
made, that no heads of families hereafter to be naturalised for the
first generation, should have votes in any of our elections.  But as
the case stands, it seems against the nature of right government
that strangers (who may be spies, and who may have an interest
opposite to that of England, and who at best ever join in one link
of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be suffered to
intermeddle in that important business of sending members to
Parliament.  From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by
birth and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations
as the natives.

And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the
strangers into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of
a whole empire were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city,
yet the same policy may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot
influence elections here by being dispersed about in the several
counties of the kingdom, where they can never come to have any
considerable strength.  But some time or other they may endanger the
government by being suffered to remain, such vast numbers of them
here in London where they inhabit altogether, at least 30,000
persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying with the
English, or learning our language, by which means for several years
to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps
may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this
cannot be advisable or safe.  It may therefore be proper to limit
any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make
the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public.

An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength
and numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men,
artificers, merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign
soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a nation more people
than their troops can well consist of:  for if it has been ever seen
that men abound most where there is most freedom (China excepted,
whose climate excels all others, and where the exercise of the
tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow that people will in time
desert those countries whose best flower is their liberties, if
those liberties are thought precarious or in danger.  That foreign
soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples from all
countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because it
is eminent above all the rest.

The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and
foreign troops; and when the peace was made between them and the
Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they
brought their army home to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their
General, had the charge of embarking, who did order all his part
with great dexterity and wisdom.  But the State of Carthage wanting
money to clear arrears, and satisfy the troops, was forced to keep
them up longer than was designed.  The army consisted of Gauls,
Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks.  At first they were insolent in
their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to remove to
Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay.  There they
grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into
mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and
gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they
marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen
miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate
wretches, for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed
to them from the commonwealth.  Afterwards they caused almost all
the Africans, their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short
time to be 70,000 strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and
Hamilcar Barcas.  During these transactions, the mercenaries that
were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their
commander and all the Carthaginians; while Spendius and Matho, to
render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco to a cruel death,
presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself.  They met with
a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were slaughtered; but
soon after this battle, in another they took one of the Carthaginian
generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying thirty of
the principal senators round about him.  Spendius and Matho were at
last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death:  but
the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive
cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and
was often brought within a hair's-breadth of utter ruin.

If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time
by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of
losing their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a
handful of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it
should be a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so
composed to be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from
desiring such an increase of people as may be had by the bringing
over foreign soldiers.

Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the
dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a
sufficient proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men
are wanting to till the ground.  For children do not proceed from
the intemperate pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a
regular way of living, where the father of the family desires to
rear up and provide for the offspring he shall beget.

Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental
for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other
polities thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected.

No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be
attributed chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in
contriving to promote the state of marriage.

The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless
by his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both
in the city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number
of children.  Encouragements of the like kind are also given in
France to such as enrich the commonwealth by a large issue.

But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the
marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the
pomp and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who
look into all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that
this duty on marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the
poorer sort, whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any
nation.  This tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs.  It is
difficult to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are
to take measures from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families
from public duties, we should not lay impositions upon those who
find it hard enough to maintain themselves.  If this tax be such a
weight upon the poor as to discourage marriage and hinder
propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be
abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some
other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so
directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries.

In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which
must make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter,
but rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges
and exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain
offices of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where
it is once made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will
quickly obtain with the lower degree.

Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as
perhaps the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual
marriages of England are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of
every 134 persons.  Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due
proportion, considering how few of our adult males (in comparison
with other countries) perish by war or any other accident; from
whence may be inferred that our polity is some way or other
defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion with the
gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be
found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom.

From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the
nearest view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into
2,700,000 males and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the
females exceed the males in number, and considering that the men
marry later than women, and that many of the males are of necessity
absent in the wars, at sea, and upon other business) it follows that
a large proportion of the females remain unmarried, though at an
adult age, which is a dead loss to the nation, every birth being as
so much certain treasure, upon which account such laws must be for
the public good, as induce all men to marry whose circumstances
permit it.

From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that
the near proportion there is between the males and females (which is
said to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest
that can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind
which some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had
intended to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a
great many more female births than male, her designments being
always right and wise.

The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a
punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders
marriage.  The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom
they have got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further
peopling of England if the common people here, under such a certain
degree, were condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty.

A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose
situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade,
will never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour
and industry of their people be well managed and carefully directed.

The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to
be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the
strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe.

It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but
numbers of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a
soil producing all sort of commodities.  The materials for all this
we have, and so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of
Nature with our own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of
greatness that would put us at least upon an equal footing with any
of our neighbours.

If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish;
if we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is
capable of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so
extended would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that
wealth which is the certain result of a large and well-governed
traffic, what human strength could hurt or invade us?  On the
contrary, should we not be in a posture not only to resist but to
give the law to others?

Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000
acres, and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a
figure have they made in Europe for these last 100 years?  What wars
have they maintained?  What forces have they resisted? and to what a
height of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise
government?

They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the
inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums
every year to defend their land against the sea; all which
difficulties they have subdued by an unwearied industry.

We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe,
we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at
least 39,000,000 acres.  We have in all likelihood not less than
5,500,000 people.  What a nation might we then become, if all these
advantages were thoroughly improved, and if a right application were
made of all this strength and of these numbers?

They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may,
perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down
such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are
disappointed.  In all appearance they proceed more safely, who,
under such a fear, make themselves strong and powerful at home.  And
this was the course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of
Perseus, took, when he thought to be invaded by the Romans.

The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it
rather seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for
fear the Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any
ambition to lord it themselves over the whole world.  Their design
was virtuous, and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early
interruption to a rival that grew so fast.  However, we see they
miscarried, though their armies were led by Hannibal.  But fortune
which had determined the dominion of the earth for Rome, did,
perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of passing the Eber
contrary to the articles of peace concluded with Asdrubal, and of
attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently recovered of the
wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and
with their own rebels.  If the high courage of Hannibal had not
driven the commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint and
weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their victories in
Spain, and to get firm footing in that rich, warlike, and then
populous country, very probably in a few years they might have been
a more equal match for the Roman people.  It is true, if the Romans
had endeavoured, at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed
the Carthaginians in that country, the war must have been
unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and will be
apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power,
already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of
Spain, will stand fair for universal empire.

But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced,
intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation that
apprehends the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify itself
within; we do not mean by land armies, which rather debilitate than
strengthen a country, but by potent navies, by thrift in the public
treasure, care of the people's trade, and all the other honest and
useful arts of peace.

By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws
and to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be
brought to so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as
not to apprehend any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of
its greatness.

And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under
which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see
what materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth
is able to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and
a free people.

Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall
proceed to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to
examine who are a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by
how much every part and member of the commonwealth can be made
useful to the whole, by so much a nation will be more and more a
gainer in this balance of trade which we are to treat of.

Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the
polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees,
titles and qualifications of the people.  He has done it so
judiciously, and upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful
perusal of any curious person, from thence we shall make some
observations in order to put our present matter in a clearer light.

First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they
frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich
cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the
kingdom's remaining part, and from this view conclude that taxes and
payments to the public do mostly arise from the gentry and better
sort, by which measures they neither contrive their imposition
aright, nor are they able to give a true estimate what it shall
produce; but when we have divided the inhabitants of England into
their proper classes, it will appear that the nobility and gentry
are but a small part of the whole body of the people.

Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care
not what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they
come to be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public
into an immense debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort,
as to occasion insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper
business it was to contrive these matters better have been so
unskilful, that the legislative power has been more than once
compelled for the peoples' ease to give new funds, instead of others
that had been ill projected.

This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the
consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon
the common sort, so that such as think in new duties that they
chiefly tax the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; for either
their fund must yield little, or it must arise from the whole body
of the people, of which the richer sort are but a small proportion.

And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore
very rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now
there is a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his
country to proceed warily in laying new ones, and to get off those
which are already laid as fast as ever he can.  High customs and
high excises both together are incompatible, either of them alone
are to be endured, but to have them co-exist is suffered in no well-
governed nation.  If materials of foreign growth were at an easy
rate, a high price might be the better borne in things of our own
product, but to have both dear at once (and by reason of the duties
laid upon them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and this
ought to weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the
common people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist
from their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other
part subsist a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the
help and charity of the rank that is above them.  For according to
Mr. King's scheme -

The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the
persons in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy,
freeholders, farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts,
shopkeepers, and tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with
the families and dependants upon all these altogether, make up the
number of 2,675,520 heads.

The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out-
servants, cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants,
make up the number of 2,825,000 heads.

In all 5,500,520 heads.

So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence
and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much
greater, in respect of the number of families, because 500,000
families contribute to the support of 850,000 families.  In
contemplation of which, great care should be taken not to lay new
duties upon the home consumption, unless upon the extremest
necessities of the State; for though such impositions cannot be said
to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty hinders them
from consuming such materials (though there are few excises to which
the meanest person does not pay something), yet indirectly, and by
unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high
duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of
people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully
into all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated.

First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity
retrench their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are
laid upon all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence
follows, that the degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers,
tradesmen, and artisans, must want employment.

Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are
utterly destructive to that principal part of England's wealth; for
if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price,
the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently
rise, for the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and
if such as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture
advance upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity,
or they cannot live, all which would signify little, if nothing but
our own dealings among one another were thereby affected; but it has
a consequence far more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade,
for it is the exportation of our own product that must make England
rich; to be gainers in the balance of trade, we must carry out of
our own product what will purchase the things of foreign growth that
are needful for our own consumption, with some overplus either in
bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, which overplus is
the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or less according
to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as from the
low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the commodity
cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets.  The
Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home
excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this
disadvantage they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious
temper of their people; but in England, where this frugality is
hardly to be introduced, if the duties upon our home consumption are
so large as to raise considerably the price of labour and
manufacture, all our commodities for exportation must by degrees so
advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold at a rate which
will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be everywhere
undersold by our wiser neighbours.  But the consequence of such
duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen
manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship
than the material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced,
it will in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal
with of setting up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or
of buying goods of the like kind and use from nations that can
afford them cheaper.  And in this point we are to consider, that the
bulk of our woollen exports does not consist in draperies made of
the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse broad
cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which make a great part
of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser wool, which is
to be had in other countries.  So that we are not singly to value
ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, which we
should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens upon
the manufacturer.  And our woollen goods being two-thirds of our
foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care,
if we expect to be gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we
hunt after in these inquiries.

Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000
heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence
is upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy
these must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no
small proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and
out-servants, which likewise affect the common seamen, who must
thereupon raise their wages or they will not have wherewithal to
keep their families left at home, and the high wages of seamen is
another burden upon our foreign traffic.  As to the cottagers, who
are about a fifth part of the whole people, some duties reach even
them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not much because of
their slender consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods and
gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if the
manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with
duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and
handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their
principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches
must perish with cold and hunger.

Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the
whole body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters
as receding from our former opinion.  On the contrary, we still
think them the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and
perhaps it is demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at
the beginning of the war of raising the year's expense within the
year by excises, England had not been now indebted so many millions,
but what was advisable under such a necessity and danger is not to
be pursued in times of peace, especially in a country depending so
much upon trade and manufactures.

Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared
off, for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may
again move freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog;
but this point we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of
our payments to the public.

Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal
classes, viz.:-

Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads.
Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads.

By which he means that the first class of the people from land,
arts, and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something
to the nation's general stock, and besides this, out of their
superfluity, contribute every year so much to the maintenance of
others.

That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour
(as the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most
of the wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle
beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a
yearly burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be
otherwise added to the nation's general stock.

The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of
a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as
serviceable to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in
honest labour and useful arts, and such being more in number do more
contribute to increase the nation's wealth than the higher rank.

But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient
Gauls and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well
employed, make the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but
unactive, as to any uses of good government.

Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that
consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who
does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed
or by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member
to it.

As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make
provision for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so
it is a justice we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as
have health, and who might maintain themselves, to be drones and
live upon the labour of others.

The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the
cottagers and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and
vagrants.

Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was
found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of
one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about
them, in all our calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at
500,000 families; but of these, a large number may get their own
livelihood, and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr.
King very judiciously computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing
the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 families, in which account
he includes the poor-houses in cities, towns, and villages, besides
which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these together to make up
1,330,000 heads.

This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon
the other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the
landed gentlemen must certainly be very sensible.

If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be
rendered beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt,
highly to be promoted by all who love their country.

It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who
have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity,
that the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real
need of relief, is but small and might be maintained for very
little, and that the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant
degree we now see them at by two sorts of people, one of which, by
reason of our slack administration, is suffered to remain in sloth,
and the other, through a defect in our constitution, continue in
wretched poverty for want of employment, though willing enough to
undertake it.

All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against
voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be
found out to set those to work who are desirous to support
themselves by their own labour; and if this could be brought about,
it would not only put a stop to the course of that vice which is the
consequence of an idle life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the
commonwealth, for if the industry of not half the people maintain in
some degree the other part, and, besides, in times of peace did add
every year near two million and a half to the general stock of
England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness might we not be
brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the nourishment
of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were
rendered useful to it?

Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living
creature either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic
institution rightly governed.

It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work
nobody will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and
more meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but
so many monuments of ill-gotten riches attended with late
repentance.

To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not
above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly
upon others get themselves a large share of their maintenance would
be the opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per
annum; it would be a present ease to every particular man of
substance, and a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom,
for it would not only nourish but increase the numbers of the
people, of which many thousands perish every year by those diseases
contracted under a slothful poverty.

Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has
employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with
little success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through
some defect in the very laws.

The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws
are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves;
of this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the
Prince's revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because
the people must pay, and the Prince will be paid; but where only one
part of the constitution, the people, are immediately concerned, as
in laws relating to the poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil
economy, and good order in the state, those are but slenderly
regarded.

The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong
enough to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have
many times fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private
persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the
laws in execution.

In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men
do not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public
good should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give
private men some interest to set it forward.

For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study
the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of
maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not
be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable
gain to put the machine upon its wheels.

In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the
House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better
maintaining the impotent, and employing and setting to work the
other poor of this kingdom.

In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or
plan laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and
correct, as they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does
rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was
composed by a gentleman of great abilities, and who has made both
the poor rates, and their number, more his study than any other
person in the nation.  The proposal is as follows


A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work.


First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of
300,000 pounds as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the
impotent poor, and for buying commodities and materials to employ
and set at work the other poor, be incorporated and made one body
politic, &c.  By the name of the Governor and Company for
Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this Kingdom.

By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should
advance several years' rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal
the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and
300,000 pounds may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the
poor rates for a certain number of years, will be a very good fund
for buying commodities and materials for a million of money at any
time.  This subscription ought to be free for everybody, and if the
sum were subscribed in the several counties of England and Wales, in
proportion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, it would
be most convenient; and provision may be made that no person shall
transfer his interest but to one of the same county, which will keep
the interest there during the term; and as to its being one
Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the
public.  For first, all disputes on removes, which are very
chargeable and burthensome, will be at an end--this proposal
intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained or
employed.  Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall be
diligent, imposing on their neighbours who may be negligent, or
getting away their manufactures from them.  Thirdly, in case of
fire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may
not be sufficient to support the places where such calamities may
happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support every
particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to
administer to every place according to their necessities.

Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of
one-and-twenty years.

The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or
otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of
infants, which is their service for their education; besides, it
will be some years before a matter of this nature can be brought
into practice.

Thirdly, that the said sum of 300,000 pounds be paid in, and laid
out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during
the said term of one-and-twenty years.

The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but
the Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas
or the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit.  And XXX per cent.
to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose,
and the remainder before they begin to act; but so as 300,000 pounds
shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any
dividends or other disposition:  and an account thereof to be
exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor
for the time being.

Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in
every parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during
the said term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent
poor good and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or
better than hath at any time within the space of XXX years before
the said XXX day of XXX been provided or allowed to such impotent
poor, and so shall continue to provide for such impotent poor, and
what other growing impotent poor shall happen in the said parish
during the said term.

By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and
decrepid persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or
any accident are for the time unable to labour for themselves or
families; and all persons (not being fit for labour) who were
usually relieved by the money raised for the use of the poor; they
shall have maintenance, as good or better, as within XXX years they
used to have.

This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it
possible, by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in
another; but it will be the interest of the Corporation that such
poor be well provided for, by reason the contrary will occasion all
the complaints or clamour that probably can be made against the
Corporation.

Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor
which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for
what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or
shall be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work
proper for such persons to be employed in.  And that provision shall
be made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as
such provision doth not exceed three-fourth parts as much as any
other person would have paid for such labour.  And in case they are
not employed and set to work, then such persons shall, until
materials or labour be provided for them, be maintained as impotent
poor; but so as such persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on
the poor's book, being able to labour, shall not quit the service of
the corporation, without leave, for the space of six months.

The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can
work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth
parts as much as any other person would give for such labour.  For
example, if another person would give one of these a shilling, the
Corporation ought to give but ninepence.  And the reason is plain,
first, because the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and
their families in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do,
and consequently they ought not to allow so much as others.
Secondly, in case any persons able to labour, shall come to the
Corporation, when their agents are not prepared with materials to
employ them, by this proposal they are to allow them full provision
as impotent poor, until they find them work, which is entirely in
favour of the poor.  Thirdly, it is neither reasonable nor possible
for the Corporation to provide materials upon every occasion, for
such persons as shall be entered with them, unless they can be
secure of such persons to work up those materials; besides, without
this provision, all the labouring people of England will play fast
and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they
are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither
shall be sure of them.

Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish
where they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the
churchwardens or overseers of the said parish, to what place of
provision he or she is removed.

It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in
houses prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made
for several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance.  So that
in some places one house will serve the impotent poor of several
parishes, in which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to
see if good provision be made for them.

Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each
parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents
of the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor to be
maintained, and deduct the sum by them expended out of the next
payments to be made to the said corporation by the said parish.

In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall,
casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the
Corporation is not present to provide for them, or having notice
doth not immediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much
out of the next payment; but there must be provision made for the
notice, and in what time the Corporation shall provide for them.

Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the
said one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly,
so much as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a
medium of seven years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the
25th of March 1697, and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall
receive the benefit of the revenues of all donations given to any
parish, or which shall be given during the said term, and all
forfeitures which the law gives to the use of the poor; and to all
other sums which were usually collected by the parish, for the
maintenance of the poor.

Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to
be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations
for maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by
reason there will be better provision for the maintenance of the
poor than ever; and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce
further charities, no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to
them.  But there are two objections to this article; first that to
make a medium by a time of war is unreasonable.  Secondly, to
continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to
give any benefit to the kingdom in that time.  To the first, it is
true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at any time
during the war, and the charge of the poor greater; and when trade
will mend is very uncertain.  To the second, it is very plain, that
although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it
will be less to particular persons, because those who before
received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; but besides,
the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a
manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into
industry; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy
beggars, with the product of their labour, will altogether be a
present benefit to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in
the value; and further the accidental charities in the streets and
at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and above the poor
rates, at least 300,000 pounds per annum, which will be entirely
saved by this proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a
further consideration for its being well received, since the
Corporation are not allowed anything for this service.

The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be
performed; and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what
they do, to make it effectual; for should such an undertaking as
this prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it will increase the
mischief.

Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and
for punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to
continue such parts as are found useful, and to add such other
restrictions, penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain
the end of this great work.

The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and
opinions given upon them are so various and contradictory, and
differ so in sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one
general scheme of management.

Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to
determine all matters and differences which may arise between the
corporation and the respective parishes.

To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary
to make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to
officers of the parish; and that those officers having examined the
same, and not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed
in each county and each city for that purpose, who may be called
supervisors of the poor, and may have allowance made them for their
trouble; and their business may be to examine the truth of such
complaints; and in case either the parish or corporation judge
themselves aggrieved by the determination of the said supervisors,
provision may be made that an appeal lie to the quarter sessions.

Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all
public beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public
beggars and idle vagrant persons.

Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to
be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in
execution against those who shall ask any public alms.

This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely
weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a
public spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking.

But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant
temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private
persons are to be gainers by it.  When they are to get themselves,
they abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest
robe when they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves
with a false zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not
to be served.  It were better, indeed, that men would serve their
country for the praise and honour that follow good actions, but this
is not to be expected in a nation at least leaning towards
corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can hope for if
the prospect of some honest gain invites people to do the public
faithful service.  For which reason, in any undertaking where it can
be made apparent that a great benefit will accrue to the
commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what
fair advantages particular men may thereby expect to reap, still
taking care to keep their appetite of getting within moderate
bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, and
making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow
subjects.

It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to
remain idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly
tend to the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every
year to the general stock of England.

Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor,
and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we
think it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of
looking with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom,
where many thousands consume their time in vice and idleness,
wasting the remainder of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance
of their creditors, eating bread and doing no work, which is
contrary to good order, and pernicious to the commonwealth.

We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill
that may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a
trading country, which should let no hands remain useless.

It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve
and release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their
fair, just, and honest rights and interest.

And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve
and increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are
methods conducing to make us gainers in the balance of trade.




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